Despite the significant roster changes the Toronto Maple Leafs made this summer, there are still some things we can be certain about as they approach the 2024-25 NHL regular season. However, there are also uncertainties that remain difficult to pin down. These uncertainties will play a major role in determining where the Leafs end up in the fiercely competitive Atlantic Division.
First, let’s focus on what we’re certain about with this lineup: Superstar center Auston Matthews is expected to lead the team, and likely the league, in goal-scoring. We also know that star winger Mitch Marner will excel as a playmaker. Captain John Tavares is almost guaranteed to maintain his near point-per-game pace, as he has throughout his NHL career. And as for William Nylander, we can count on him to contribute a significant amount of offense.
Injuries could potentially hinder the contributions of one of the Core Four, but Leafs management is counting on the quartet to perform as expected, both during the regular season and the Stanley Cup playoffs.
However, what remains uncertain is how the Leafs’ secondary scoring will come together, especially in terms of what a specific trio of players will contribute in that area.
One of those players is winger Nick Robertson, who has reportedly requested a trade out of Toronto. The 22-year-old scored 14 goals and 27 points in 56 games last season, despite averaging just 11:23 of ice time per game. Although he has yet to sign a new contract, it’s assumed that Leafs GM Brad Treliving will have him signed by training camp. Robertson isn’t suited for a third or fourth-line role, so it seems like it’s second line or nothing for him in the 2024-25 season. If he can deliver 20-25 goals in that position, the Leafs’ management will likely be glad they didn’t grant his trade request.
However, serious competition is brewing for that second-line winger spot, particularly from second-year NHLer Bobby McMann. The 28-year-old posted similar numbers to Robertson last season, with 15 goals and 24 points in 56 games. However, McMann brings more grit to his game and, crucially, is signed to a team-friendly $1.35 million per season for the next two years. Because of this, some are already predicting McMann will secure the second-line winger position. Nevertheless, he’ll need to prove he can make the most of the opportunity with strong performances early in the season.
Another younger Leafs forward who will likely be a wildcard is winger Matthew Knies, who is expected to start the season on the first line. The 21-year-old impressed Leafs management with his performance, contributing 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games, and was particularly notable in the playoffs with a gritty effort against the Boston Bruins, including two goals and three points in seven games. Although Knies was somewhat sheltered in his rookie season, averaging just 13:41 of ice time per game, he is expected to become more effective as he grows into his role. Additionally, he will remain cost-controlled for the foreseeable future, as he will be a restricted free agent after this coming season.
As we saw in the 2024 playoffs, scoring goals was a challenge for the Leafs. However, if things go as planned and Toronto receives strong performances from the ‘Core Four’ and their secondary contributors, the overall pressure on the team will lessen. The Leafs don’t need every player to make significant strides, as progress in the NHL isn’t always linear. But if one or two secondary forwards can contribute notably on offense, the Leafs could finish the regular season in one of the top two spots in the Atlantic Division. Securing a high position in the division would provide valuable home-ice advantage, which could be crucial for advancing to the second round and beyond. While the entire team is under scrutiny, McMann, Knies, and Robertson will face significant attention in the 2024-25 season. If they excel, the Leafs could become one of the most formidable teams in the league. Conversely, if they struggle, GM Brad Treliving will likely act swiftly to bring in players who can perform well in those roles.
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