The Detroit Lions have Wednesday off as they get ready for their preseason debut against the New York Giants. This seems like a perfect time to open our mailbag—with a bit of a twist.
While Erik Schlitt and I recorded a Midweek Mailbag podcast on Tuesday night, I thought it would be useful to also provide a written mailbag for those who prefer reading. You can find the audio version at the bottom of the page. For now, let’s dive into the written mailbag.
Patience is definitely a key factor here. The Lions have kept every draft pick made by Brad Holmes on the roster, except for Chase Lucas, a seventh-round pick from 2022. Dan Campbell has emphasized the importance of playing time for player development and how progress can vary among individuals.
However, it’s important to note that the Lions’ roster was in such disarray during Holmes’ early years that they could afford to keep all these players. As the roster improves and becomes more competitive, retaining long-term projects will become more challenging. For instance, consider Starling Thomas from last year.
Nonetheless, with draft investments in players like Brodric Martin, Giovanni Manu, and Hendon Hooker, it’s evident that long-term development remains a priority for the team. They’ll just need to be more discerning as they move forward.
In a typical practice, Penei Sewell takes all of his reps on the right side. However, when Taylor Decker is injured or taking a break, Sewell is the first to shift to the left tackle position. For instance, last week, when the entire starting offensive line had a day off, Sewell was the only one who continued to practice, and he worked out at left tackle.
For the first question, Campbell mentioned that players who are “going to be counted on” will be held out, along with those dealing with minor injuries. This means only a few starters are likely to participate.
Looking at last year’s preseason snap counts, it’s unlikely that any offensive starters will play, though Jameson Williams might see some limited action due to his fewer reps. On defense, with so many young players, Campbell will probably want to give them some playing time. Expect to see Brodric Martin, Terrion Arnold (if healthy), Ennis Rakestraw, and possibly Jack Campbell. Other starters are unlikely to play, though Levi Onwuzurike might get a few series.
Regarding Williams, I’m confident he’s made significant progress and should be a valuable team member. While occasional lapses may occur, the frequency of his mistakes compared to last year shows considerable improvement. An 800-yard season seems very achievable for him.
While the statistics are intriguing and warrant closer examination, there’s a risk of falling into a correlation/causation fallacy here.
The Lions’ pass defense ranked ninth in dropback EPA over the first six games of the season, when they were notably less aggressive with their blitzes. However, this lack of blitzing wasn’t necessarily a strategic choice but rather a response to the situation: they faced teams with significant offensive uncertainties, such as the Seahawks, Falcons, Packers (with Love’s fifth career start), Panthers, and Buccaneers. They ranked 22nd in blitzes during this period.
In the latter half of the season, from Weeks 7-18, the Lions’ blitz rate climbed to seventh, coinciding with a tougher slate of opponents, including the Ravens, Vikings (twice), Rams, Chargers, Packers, and Cowboys. The increase in blitzing came as a reaction to the high-caliber offenses they faced. Their pass defense struggled during this stretch, but it’s uncertain whether this was due to the increased blitzing or simply the quality of the opposing offenses.
Moreover, early in the season, the Lions were healthier, which contributed to their better performance. By season’s end, injuries and inexperienced replacements in the secondary, such as Ifeatu Melifonwu, as well as the loss of James Houston, impacted their performance. The team was forced to rotate players and scramble for a reliable pass rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson.
Thus, it’s a significant leap to conclude that reducing blitzing would have dramatically improved their success last year. The increased blitzing was partly a response to facing stronger offenses and dealing with injuries.
Looking ahead to 2024, the Lions believe their end-of-season approach better aligns with their desired identity. Despite the yardage allowed, the increased aggression led to higher disruption numbers, ranking third in sacks (19) and tied for first in interceptions (nine) over the six games leading up to the NFC Championship Game.
With a more physical and reliable secondary this season, thanks to offseason investments, the Lions are expected to maintain their aggressive approach. New additions like DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, and Marcus Davenport should bolster their pass rush, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is unlikely to let the team become overly passive.
As Glenn stated earlier this offseason, “I like to smother the offense. I like to blitz, I like to get after the offense. Listen, I’m not sitting here saying we are going to blitz every time, it’s just a part of what we do, it’s a part of our personality and then also a part of the guys we have.”
For further discussion, check out the podcast mailbag, which covers topics such as:
– Emmanuel Moseley’s injury impact
– The pros and cons of Brian Branch moving to safety
– The effects of joint practice fights and injuries
– The WR3 position
– Updates on Josh Paschal
– The new kickoff rule’s impact on roster decisions.
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